Kenya's Future: Vested interests at risk

Well connected power-brokers are consolidating their stranglehold on political commitments made by MP's whose campaigns were dependent on these deep pockets; a gamble with the devil. It is therefore no surprise that barely 8 Months on, Kenya is still reeling from the consequences of the 2007 Presidential vote. Political will has been compromised and is susceptible to vested interests.

So powerful are these forces that Kibaki's re-installment as the President for another 5yrs irrespective of the subsequent fallout, was practically out of the President's will and fortitude. In its place, a well connected clique masqueraded as advisers and in-effect orchestrated a civil coup. That is water under the bridge. This fact is well know inside both PNU, ODM & ODM-K camps and God forbid such parties are exposed.

Nothing on Kenya's political scene occurs by happenstance as forewarned by the NSIS in a circular that did rounds within the intelligence community around the globe prior to the 2007 vote. It was therefore a foregone conclusion that powers that be and their cohorts would ensure that this circular never saw the light of day in the public domain. In addition, the consolidation of the security apparatus became critical, and we witnessed the movement of such forces to probable flash-points, the Opposition strongholds and the resultant ban on Media Live transmission.

The Mainstream media is now under siege by major stock holders, the vested interests and a conflict of interest that feeds to serve, not its journalistic role, but spin. Redundancy has become a common theme in the media lately and one wonders why old news becomes new news despite its obvious lack of staying power or devoid of relevant content but, alas, inflammatory rhetoric from politicians.

This is all to apparent to a keen observer that the intent is to scuttle the constitutional review process. This Document in-effect will and intends to sideline power-brokers & GK insiders. It is after all people driven a defining revelation that Thomas Jefferson was quick to point out and eradicate in writing the American Constitution in stating, "In matters of Power, let no more be heard of confidence in men, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution." Mischief it seems is Kenya's bane as is best perfected by politicians who are time and again compromised by vested interests devoid of any checks and balances that would otherwise protect the citizens from the medieval alignment and refuge in tribes.

To move beyond this point, it is perhaps now or never that this past Tuesday, Martha Karua set the ball rolling on yet another path to a new constitution. And that brings us to this point. Martha Karua's declaration that she would vie for the Presidency must be taken seriously and frankly, most don't ascribe to that possibility given the preserve of the same structure in government.

Karua might just indeed get her wish; as a Ceremonial President. The powers that be will attempt to position her as the candidate of the Gikuyu and the person to blame for Kibaki's 2007 fiasco. Read above, again. Karua has more in common with the opposition, from ideals to their disdain of the old guard. She is and has proven to be a Loyal surrogate at the time of need. One not need look further than the roles she played to ensure that Kibaki retains the Presidency during the mediation, as a rule of law, not as an individual with vested interests. Let's not confuse the two.

Kenya's presidency as we know will cease to exist with Kibaki. It is ironical that the very institution that has defined Kenya for better or worse, the bloodletting, ethnicity the corruption, has been subjected to a lame-duck Presidency as power-brokers and vested interests realign to recall favors owed. Such is the turbulence that imperative issues of IDP's, Land & the much anticipated Constitution are increasingly challenged not by Politicians, but by those who bankrolled their reelection or hoisting to the national stage. Karua is immune to this and in as much as many are quick to throw spanners at her ambition, one only needs to revisit the violence to understand that Kenya is far from healed.

The Constitution will realign the Executive and shift it to Parliament and hence the all Executive Prime Minister. Given this reality, the party with Majority seats as defined by the new political parties bill of 2008, its very likely ODM will occupy this office assuming all factors remain the same. This is apparent to NSIS and GK hallways hence the growing Statue of Raila, the current occupant. This realignment will in-effect pave the way for Karua as President. Africa's 2nd Democratically elected female President, a milestone that Karua and Raila can both achieve with relative ease and this fact alone has shaken-up the power-brokers that re-installed Kibaki. Kibaki on the other hand has nothing to loose other than cement his legacy. Issues of his ill health is spin and although he is indeed old, he remains committed to 2 protagonist who are currently ensuring his legacy remains intact; how odd is that, a pair of strange bedfellows in Raila & Karua